Our Insights
Public analysis is the record of how we think. Each piece states its evidence base, its confidence and the conditions under which the judgement would change.
AnalysisBlack Sea
A reduction in private war-risk cover would not halt maritime trade immediately, but it would increase costs, narrow carrier participation, and expose regional importers to sharper disruption scenarios.
· 12 August 2026 · 1 min
AnalysisMoldova
Election-period risk is more likely to emerge through administrative pressure, information operations, and turnout constraints than through a single disruptive incident.
· 5 August 2026 · 1 min
Private work
Briefings are delivered by the analyst responsible for the assessment. Every request is read by a person, and we will say plainly when a question falls outside our competence.