About

An institution built to be checked.

FOCUS is an independent analytical centre. We are non-partisan, we publish our methods, and we accept that our judgements must be scored against outcomes.

Statement of purpose

Institutions making consequential decisions rarely lack information. They lack judgement that is explicit about its own uncertainty. FOCUS exists to produce that judgement, to write it down in language that can be argued with, and to remain accountable for it after the fact.

FOCUS is an analytical centre, not a news agency, not a consultancy selling certainty and not a subscription publication. Research is directed by an internal assessment review board and is not subject to editorial direction from funders or clients.

Independence and funding

We publish the composition of our funding annually. No single source exceeds fifteen per cent of operating revenue. We decline commissions where the terms would constrain the conclusion, and we say so publicly when we do.

Review and correction

Every assessment is challenged before release by an analyst who did not write it. Where a published judgement proves wrong, we say so in the same place we made the claim, with an explanation of what the error tells us about the method.

2016

Established in Geneva

4

Offices across three continents

38

Analysts and research fellows

0.19

Mean Brier score, 2025 forecasts

Neoclassical ministry facade in flat overcast light

Research staff

Analysts

Elena Marchetti

Director of Research

Political risk, influence networks, Southeast Europe

Geneva

Amir Khoury

Head of Sanctions and Regulatory Risk

Sanctions regimes, export controls, financial intermediation

Geneva

Joana Ferreira

Head of Forecasting and Data

Strategic forecasting, energy interdependence, quantitative methods

Warsaw

Mariam Diallo

Senior Fellow, West Africa

Sahelian security, cross-border trade, concession risk

Nairobi

Private work

Need a clearer assessment of a developing risk?

Briefings are delivered by the analyst responsible for the assessment. Every request is read by a person, and we will say plainly when a question falls outside our competence.