Elena Marchetti
Director of Research
Political risk, influence networks, Southeast Europe
Geneva
About
FOCUS is an independent analytical centre. We are non-partisan, we publish our methods, and we accept that our judgements must be scored against outcomes.
Statement of purpose
Institutions making consequential decisions rarely lack information. They lack judgement that is explicit about its own uncertainty. FOCUS exists to produce that judgement, to write it down in language that can be argued with, and to remain accountable for it after the fact.
FOCUS is an analytical centre, not a news agency, not a consultancy selling certainty and not a subscription publication. Research is directed by an internal assessment review board and is not subject to editorial direction from funders or clients.
We publish the composition of our funding annually. No single source exceeds fifteen per cent of operating revenue. We decline commissions where the terms would constrain the conclusion, and we say so publicly when we do.
Every assessment is challenged before release by an analyst who did not write it. Where a published judgement proves wrong, we say so in the same place we made the claim, with an explanation of what the error tells us about the method.
2016
Established in Geneva
4
Offices across three continents
38
Analysts and research fellows
0.19
Mean Brier score, 2025 forecasts

Research staff
Director of Research
Political risk, influence networks, Southeast Europe
Geneva
Head of Sanctions and Regulatory Risk
Sanctions regimes, export controls, financial intermediation
Geneva
Head of Forecasting and Data
Strategic forecasting, energy interdependence, quantitative methods
Warsaw
Senior Fellow, West Africa
Sahelian security, cross-border trade, concession risk
Nairobi
Private work
Briefings are delivered by the analyst responsible for the assessment. Every request is read by a person, and we will say plainly when a question falls outside our competence.