Daily assessment of geopolitical risk, sanctions, hybrid threats and strategic forecasting from an independent analytical centre.
Analysis|Black Sea · 12 August 2026
A reduction in private war-risk cover would not halt maritime trade immediately, but it would increase costs, narrow carrier participation, and expose regional importers to sharper disruption scenarios.
Elena Marin · 1 min read · Public
AnalysisMoldova
Election-period risk is more likely to emerge through administrative pressure, information operations, and turnout constraints than through a single disruptive incident.
· 5 August 2026 · 1 min
Latest analysis
AnalysisMoldova
Election-period risk is more likely to emerge through administrative pressure, information operations, and turnout constraints than through a single disruptive incident.
· 5 August 2026 · 1 min
Calibrated judgements
65%
Two further syndicates withdraw Black Sea war risk capacity
Resolves 30 Sep 2026
40%
A central Sahel concession enters formal renegotiation
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
80%
EU and UK dual-use lists diverge on three or more tariff lines
Resolves 31 Mar 2027
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Practice areas
How political conditions, state behaviour and economic statecraft shape the environment an organisation operates in.
Indicator frameworks that identify deterioration before it becomes visible in public reporting.
Coercion below the threshold of open conflict, and the ownership structures used to shape political outcomes.
Calibrated probability judgements with stated resolution criteria, written so they can be scored.
Designation exposure, licensing strategy, circumvention typologies and divergence between control regimes.
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