Our Expertise
Five areas of expertise, one method.
We do not sell coverage of everything. We work where we hold long-standing sources, tested methods and analysts who can be held to their judgements.
Political & Geoeconomic Risk
How political conditions, state behaviour and economic statecraft shape the environment an organisation operates in.
What we examine
Governance and succession dynamics, coalition durability, the credibility of policy commitments, and the use of trade, investment and regulation as instruments of state pressure.
Why it matters
Political conditions determine whether commitments hold, whether contracts are honoured and whether an operating environment remains viable at the pricing assumed when it was entered.
Decisions it informs
Market entry and exit, capital commitment, partner selection, mandate design, and the timing of exposure changes.
Crisis Early Warning
Indicator frameworks that identify deterioration before it becomes visible in public reporting.
What we examine
Observable precursors — infrastructure and logistics behaviour, price and flow anomalies, administrative and personnel changes, and local reporting outside major languages.
Why it matters
The cost of response rises sharply once a situation is widely reported. Warning has value only if it arrives while options remain open.
Decisions it informs
Contingency activation, staff and asset posture, escalation thresholds, and when to move from monitoring to action.
Hybrid Threats & Influence Networks
Coercion below the threshold of open conflict, and the ownership structures used to shape political outcomes.
What we examine
Energy, migration, legal and infrastructure pressure; media and distribution ownership; procurement and vendor concentration around sensitive administrative functions.
Why it matters
These instruments are designed to be deniable. They are detected through structure and behaviour, not through content or public statements.
Decisions it informs
Institutional resilience planning, vendor and counterparty scrutiny, communications posture, and where to place monitoring.
Strategic Forecasting
Calibrated probability judgements with stated resolution criteria, written so they can be scored.
What we examine
Plausible pathways, their driving conditions, base rates from comparable cases, and the specific developments that would change the judgement.
Why it matters
Planning requires a stated view of what is likely, not a list of possibilities. A forecast that cannot be scored cannot be trusted.
Decisions it informs
Scenario planning, budget and horizon setting, hedging, and the scheduling of formal reassessment.
Sanctions & Regulatory Risk
Designation exposure, licensing strategy, circumvention typologies and divergence between control regimes.
What we examine
Listing instruments and their practical reach, ownership and control tests, the intermediary layer of controlled-goods trade, and divergence between allied jurisdictions.
Why it matters
Restriction changes faster than the controls built around it, and residual exposure usually sits with intermediaries rather than named entities.
Decisions it informs
Counterparty screening, licensing and wind-down strategy, supply-chain restructuring, and disclosure to boards and regulators.
How an assessment is produced
- 01
What changed
The specific development, stated without inflation: what is observed, when, and on what evidence.
- 02
Why it matters
The mechanism connecting the development to your exposure — political, economic, regulatory or operational.
- 03
What can happen next
A small number of plausible pathways, with the conditions that would make each more or less likely.
- 04
What to watch
Named indicators that can be monitored, with the thresholds at which the reading changes.
- 05
What may be required
The decisions the assessment supports, and the point at which the judgement should be reassessed.
Private work
Need a clearer assessment of a developing risk?
Briefings are delivered by the analyst responsible for the assessment. Every request is read by a person, and we will say plainly when a question falls outside our competence.